With five minutes left in regulation and the score tied in Game 4 on Sunday, Connor McDavid gloved down a loose puck in the defensive zone and took off.
The Edmonton Oilers captain charged toward Anaheim Ducks rookie forward Beckett Sennecke, who had little hope of slowing down the NHL’s fastest skater in open ice. Fortunately for the Ducks, goaltender Lukas Dostal’s outstretched leg prevented McDavid from converting the end-to-end rush.
Those moments from McDavid have been less prevalent through the Oilers’ first four playoff games. McDavid’s substandard level of play, which is still better than most players can dream of attaining, has been the major talking point of the Oilers’ series against the Ducks, who are one win from advancing to the second round after prevailing 4-3 in overtime Sunday.
McDavid is a game-time decision for Game 5, which is set for Tuesday in Edmonton, with live coverage on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+ starting at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT.
McDavid has four points (one goal and three assists) in four games, but three have come on the power play. His lone five-on-five point was a secondary assist in Game 3. (Edmonton has been outscored 5-2 during McDavid’s minutes at five-on-five.)
There is rampant speculation that McDavid is playing through an ankle injury he suffered in Game 2, but he previously dismissed those concerns.
“It’s not really about Connor McDavid here,” McDavid told reporters Sunday. “It’s about two teams that are trying to figure each other out. They’re playing well, and we’ve got another level as a group.”
At least analytically, McDavid’s apparent injury has not hindered his speed. On Sunday, McDavid led all Oilers and Ducks skaters with four rush scoring chances, and he leads the playoffs with seven speed bursts of 22-plus m.p.h., according to NHL EDGE.
Three of those bursts came in Games 3 and 4. McDavid’s end-to-end rushes per game are also up from his regular-season average after he recorded four Sunday.
The most noticeable dip in McDavid’s play against the Ducks has come in the slot. McDavid, whose 11.5 slot-driving plays per game during the regular season led the league by a wide margin, is averaging just 7.5 combined slot passes and carries per game in the playoffs.
The passes are the primary issue; McDavid has completed only 32.1 per cent of his playoff slot passes (9/28) versus 48.2 per cent in the regular season. Anaheim struggled to stop slot passes in the regular season, finishing 31st by allowing opponents to complete 49.7 per cent of those passes. That makes McDavid’s inability to successfully pass the puck into the slot during this series even more head-scratching. (McDavid’s slot carries are down from 7.3 per game to 5.25 per game.)
Anaheim has sapped McDavid of one of his greatest superpowers. In the regular season, 76 of McDavid’s 138 points — 37 goals and 39 assists — were the result of slot shots and passes.
“(We’ve) still got to be better against not just (McDavid), but everybody, at keeping the puck out of our net,” Ducks coach Joel Quenneville told reporters. “But certainly, he gets attention when he’s on the ice. We know that you want to stay above him, you want to deny him the puck, and you don’t want to give him any room. I think we’ve been pretty good as a pack of five when he’s on the ice.”
With the series returning to Edmonton on Tuesday, Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch could try to get McDavid away from Anaheim’s top defence pair of Jackson LaCombe and Jacob Trouba. The Ducks have generated 64 per cent of the expected goals and outscored the Oilers 2-1 over 26:41 of head-to-head ice time at five-on-five.
McDavid has also not been as sure-handed with the puck, as evidenced by his turnover rate spiking from 14.9 per cent in the regular season to 19.2 per cent in the playoffs. The most glaringly bad giveaway came in Game 2, when McDavid’s errant backhanded pass in the defensive zone led directly to Ducks forward Ryan Poehling’s short-handed goal.
Plays like that are why the Oilers are on the brink of elimination. Half of Anaheim’s playoff-leading 20 goals have come within 10 seconds of an Edmonton turnover. (Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard has been responsible for six of the 10 turnover goals against.)
If McDavid plays Tuesday, it would be his 16th career game when facing elimination. And if history is any indication, he'll be ready if he's indeed able to go. McDavid has 23 points in his previous 15 elimination games, and the Oilers are 8-7-0.
“I think everyone at this time of the year, or most everyone, has got something — bumps, bruises,” Knoblauch told reporters Sunday. “Certainly Connor will want to continue playing, and we’re going to need him and everyone to play their best.”
